Morningstar Stays Skeptical on Sandisk's Long-Term Goals
Morningstar keeps its cautious stance on Sandisk after a bullish investor day, citing NAND market volatility and peak pricing concerns.
If you caught Sandisk's recent investor day, you might have walked away feeling pretty good about the company's future. Management laid out ambitious long-term targets and leaned hard into the AI demand story. But Morningstar isn't buying the hype — at least not all of it.
The research firm is keeping its skepticism firmly in place, pointing to something that anyone who's followed the memory chip space knows too well: NAND prices are notoriously volatile. Supply and demand in that market tend to swing wildly, and Morningstar thinks that dynamic isn't going away anytime soon. Yes, AI is driving real, meaningful demand for memory chips — that part isn't in dispute. But strong demand doesn't automatically translate into sustained profits.
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Here's where it gets interesting for investors: Morningstar expects NAND prices to peak sometime in early 2028, and then head back down. That anticipated price drop is enough for the firm to trim its outlook for Sandisk's profitability toward the end of the decade. In other words, the good times are coming — just don't expect them to last forever.
Despite all this, Morningstar is holding its fair value estimate steady at $1,000 per share. And with shares currently trading above that figure, the firm considers Sandisk overvalued at present levels. For investors thinking about jumping in, that's a meaningful signal worth sitting with before making any moves.
Continue reading at Morningstar.
