Bitcoin May Be Near Cycle Bottom, K33 Research Says
More than half of Bitcoin's supply is underwater, a signal that has historically preceded major recoveries within weeks.
If you're holding Bitcoin at a loss right now, you're not alone — and according to crypto research firm K33, that's actually a weirdly encouraging sign. The firm points out that more than half of Bitcoin's entire circulating supply is currently being held at a loss, meaning most coins out there are worth less today than what their holders paid for them.
Here's why that matters: K33 says that historically, whenever this threshold gets crossed — where the majority of Bitcoin's supply slips into the red — the market has tended to find its cycle bottom within just a few weeks. In other words, mass pain has often been a reliable contrarian signal that the worst is nearly over.
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And the potential upside? According to K33, strong one-year returns have followed in most of the previous cycles where this condition appeared. That doesn't mean a guaranteed bounce is coming, but the pattern is consistent enough that serious analysts are paying attention.
Of course, past performance in crypto is about as reliable as a weather forecast two weeks out — directionally useful, but not a promise. Macro conditions, regulatory shifts, and broader market sentiment can all throw historical patterns out the window. Still, if you believe in Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, this kind of on-chain data gives the bull case a little more analytical backbone than pure hope.
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